Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.312949 7.492427 8.793056 10.328443 12.085895 14.029060 16.334277
2025-02-16 4.217203 5.713579 7.548366 9.939106 12.944793 16.569327 21.238326
2025-02-23 2.930961 4.476132 6.557542 9.509298 13.521151 18.709850 25.840836
2025-03-02 2.089234 3.565294 5.731103 9.041143 13.851821 20.450185 30.014032
2025-03-09 1.611139 3.038594 5.297676 8.980378 14.643625 22.797431 35.137076
2025-03-16 1.243506 2.582842 4.860170 8.801479 15.181420 24.773471 39.851326
2025-03-23 1.077103 2.427124 4.863705 9.291208 16.758507 28.375154 47.183382
2025-03-30 0.892570 2.187215 4.669538 9.404431 17.718076 31.085606 53.349981
2025-04-06 0.735252 1.958492 4.447157 9.421196 18.494470 33.541706 59.270187
2025-04-13 0.605117 1.751493 4.223401 9.391542 19.166952 35.856376 65.098039
2025-04-20 0.562840 1.736540 4.381426 10.100419 21.211037 40.586869 75.141645
2025-04-27 0.496823 1.644864 4.359360 10.445319 22.610505 44.306035 83.722627
2025-05-04 0.438364 1.561082 4.349129 10.831906 24.162728 48.468114 93.436393
2025-05-11 0.362891 1.406927 4.149773 10.795821 24.902320 51.259209 101.008034
2025-05-18 0.286616 1.222214 3.837459 10.463753 25.013099 52.911165 106.687305
2025-05-25 0.220433 1.041715 3.493230 10.000143 24.793036 53.914791 111.251335
2025-06-01 0.181846 0.940339 3.335995 9.949657 25.428548 56.571927 118.965039
2025-06-08 0.146150 0.832912 3.135856 9.759955 25.735043 58.600854 125.618990
2025-06-15 0.134990 0.821543 3.217294 10.296500 27.704992 64.038215 138.971999
2025-06-22 0.115620 0.764861 3.146098 10.420776 28.742313 67.656498 149.024507
2025-06-29 0.097143 0.702470 3.041781 10.439330 29.532438 70.815152 158.347023
2025-07-06 0.080805 0.641181 2.925859 10.407067 30.195338 73.746016 167.367314
2025-07-13 0.078702 0.657035 3.083957 11.180231 32.875262 81.070140 185.426526